Category: Insights

Something big happened last week…

Last Friday – Good Friday – was a relatively quiet day with the US equity markets closed and most investors away from their screens for a long holiday weekend. In this cover of silence, a striking data point surfaced.

For the first time in thirty years, global central bank gold reserves overtook US Treasury securities in total valuation. This is telling.

As I write, the world’s central banks collectively hold approximately $4 trillion worth of gold. That’s compared to $3.9 trillion in US Treasuries (bills/notes/bonds). Let’s think about what this means…

For the past several decades, the US dollar and US Treasuries were the two central pillars of the global monetary architecture. Everything else was secondary.

That arrangement just changed. Not dramatically, and not in a way that will drastically impact asset values this week or this month. But this is a key structural shift in the global financial system – one that CNBC is unlikely to ever mention.

Gold surpassing US Treasuries as central bank reserves didn’t happen overnight. This is the result of a long-term trend that we’ve been covering in these pages for three years now. I call it gold remonetization.

Continue reading “Gold Overtakes Treasuries… and What It Means”

Here at The Phoenician League, we’ve been making the case for real assets for years now. And for most of that time, the polite response from mainstream financial circles was a kind of patient skepticism — the sort of smile that says “that’s amusing, but we don’t do those quirky things here”.

And I understand why.

For those who came up during the Age of Paper Wealth, gold was a “barbarous relic”. John Maynard Keynes said so. So did Warren Buffett, in so many words.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin was just a silly speculation for libertarians and tech geeks… Uranium was irrelevant because nuclear was dead… And royalty companies were massively risky. To the mainstream view, the serious money was in the stocks that you could find covered in the Wall Street Journal and on CNBC. And the best way to own those stocks was through some kind of financially engineered fund.

That consensus in mainstream circles lasted for decades… but it’s now breaking down.

To me, this is one of the most important investment stories of the decade. The era of maximum financialization is over. The Age of Paper Wealth has ended.

What the Age of Paper Wealth Cost Us

For roughly four decades, the global economy ran an experiment.

The experiment was simple: what happens if you make finance the dominant force in economic life? What happens when the most talented people go to Wall Street instead of building things? What happens when corporate strategy is driven by buybacks and multiple expansion rather than investment in productive capacity?

Granted, I don’t think they saw this as an experiment. I think there were a lot of true believers out there. The story of Jack Welch’s rise at General Electric (GE) is a great example.

Regardless, we now know what the financialization experiment has reaped.

Asset prices went up — dramatically, in many cases. The people who owned financial assets got wealthy. But the underlying economy — the physical, productive, tangible economy — was hollowed out in the process. That wrecked the middle class.

Manufacturing left. Infrastructure aged. The skills required to build and maintain real things became scarce. And the financial system became dependent on an ever-expanding supply of cheap money to keep the whole structure from contracting.

That era is over. And we’re now seeing the assets that were ignored for forty years begin to reassert their value.

And here’s the thing…

Continue reading “The End of Paper Wealth and the Rise of Real Assets”

Friends – happy Monday!

Spring is starting to show its face up here in the mountains of Virginia. The snow has melted, and many of the trees are starting to bud.

It will probably take another 30 days or so, but we have a weeping cherry willow tree on the property that blooms the brightest pink for roughly one week every Spring. I always look forward to it.

To me, Spring represents new life and new beginnings. I’m always humbled by the logic of nature’s cycles.

And if we turn our attention to the world of finance, we can see evidence of new beginnings everywhere we look. If we pay attention to the signs, that is.

The Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway that carries roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply — is now effectively closed. As a result, oil is back above $100 a barrel for the first time in four years.

Meanwhile, gold is holding firm above $5,000 an ounce. For context, gold was just over $3,000 per ounce at this time last year.

And the US Treasury, which has been trying to manage a great economic reordering, is now in a tough spot.

If oil prices remain elevated, that will put a drag on economic activity. And since Congress has not done anything to stop all the waste, fraud, and abuse uncovered by the DOGE team, the US government is still running a massive fiscal deficit… which puts upward pressure on interest rates.

At the same time, the stock market has pulled back from its recent highs, and many stocks (like software companies) have fallen dramatically. Now narratives are shifting by the day.

If you’re watching all of this from inside a conventional portfolio — heavy on financial assets, light on real assets, and anchored to the hope that the Fed will eventually cut rates and rescue valuations — this environment might feel troubling.

But for those of us who recognized the trends and positioned ourselves with real assets investing, the current climate feels like confirmation.

So I’d like to step back from the headlines today and talk about what it means to invest wisely in a changing world.

Continue reading “Volatility vs. Risk: Why Real Assets Investing is the Smart Play in Today’s Economy”

After a relatively calm start to the year, the financial landscape has grown more turbulent over the past week.

War headlines continue to dominate the news cycle. We’re seeing talk of $100 and even $200 oil prices.

At the same time, markets are trying to digest the implications of a rapidly escalating AI arms race. And investors are watching the stock market pull back as uncertainty ripples through the system.

For many investors, the current landscape is confusing. How does one go about investing during market uncertainty?

One day the headlines say artificial intelligence is about to transform the global economy. The next day markets are selling off as geopolitical tensions rise somewhere across the world.

The truth is that we’re living through one of those rare periods where multiple structural shifts are unfolding at the same time.

A new technological revolution is accelerating… a new geopolitical order is emerging… and the financial system itself is slowly adjusting to both of those forces.

When this kind of transition happens, markets can become volatile and difficult to interpret. Short-term price movements begin to look chaotic. Narratives change from week to week. And investors who are relying on traditional financial advice often find themselves reacting to events rather than preparing for them.

At The Phoenician League, our comprehensive investment strategy was built specifically to navigate the uncertain world that’s unfolding before us.

Rather than trying to predict every twist and turn in the news cycle, our approach focuses on positioning our capital around the structural forces that are shaping the next era of the global economy.

That means understanding how artificial intelligence is transforming infrastructure and energy demand. It means recognizing how geopolitical tensions are reshaping supply chains and resource markets.

And, most importantly, it means building a portfolio that includes real assets and income investments designed to bulletproof our money in uncertain environments– in addition to our strategic equity portfolio.

Continue reading “Investing During Market Uncertainty”

After snow and ice covered the ground for the better part of three weeks, Winter’s finally starting to break up here in the mountains of Virginia.

A host of little robins have found their way to our property, each content to hop around and search for worms. That’s a sure sign that Spring will be arriving soon.

On the macroeconomic front, our 2026 Investment Outlook is falling into place.

For the first time in several decades, the market is now valuing real assets and raw materials (gold, silver, copper, uranium, industrial metals, and the infrastructure that produces/delivers them) at a premium to the financialized paper claims layered on top of them (futures, ETFs, derivatives, REITs, and mortgage-backed securities).

This is the Age of Paper Wealth crumbling right before our eyes.

Continue reading “Portfolio Strategy for the Great Re-pricing”

Friends,

I hope the new year is off to a great start for you. It’s certainly been a winter wonderland up here in the mountains of Virginia. The ground has been covered in ice all week, and temperatures have been around zero degrees Fahrenheit every night.

This environment reminds me of why it’s wise to keep extra provisions on hand and to invest in alternative energy sources.

We’ve been routinely enjoying old-fashioned fires in the fireplace up here. And we just added a second 500-gallon propane tank to our homestead last month to make sure that the generator always has plenty of fuel.

In addition, I’ve been running my solar shed on a Jackery backup battery system since the solar panels will be buried in ice for the foreseeable future. If you haven’t seen these devices yet, they are incredible. You can get more information on them at: https://www.jackery.com/.

Here’s a picture of the frozen solar shed with our bare-faced cliffs looking down in all their majesty:

On the investment front, everything is playing out according to our initial 2026 investment outlook. Gold has already surpassed $5,200 an ounce while silver, copper, and uranium mining shares have gone parabolic – along with other investments in critical minerals.

Continue reading “Winter Preparedness, Real Assets, and Advanced Wealth Strategies for 2026”

Hey friends – we’re going to talk about our 2026 investment outlook today. But first – happy New Year!

I certainly hope that you had a wonderful holiday season. It’s such a magical time of year.

Here at the Withrow Estate, my daughter Maddie claims that we had the best Christmas ever. I love seeing the excitement in her and her brother Isaiah’s eyes when they walk downstairs on Christmas morning.

Maddie is eleven years old now… so I’ve come to terms with the fact that her lens on Christmas morning will likely change here in a few years. I have mixed feelings about that. But I’m learning to live in the present and cherish the moments as they come.

Speaking of moments, the kids got a drone for Christmas… and it’s pretty slick. This thing can fly up to 120 meters into the sky, which is about 394 feet. And it features a camera that can swivel to take some incredible pictures.

Here’s one the kids took of our property:

I’m amazed at how sharp this is. You can see the old red barn in the bottom right of the picture, and the original farmhouse to the left of it. The clouds are striking against the crisp blue sky. And it looks like there’s a little snow on top of the mountains in the background. That wasn’t evident when looking up from the ground.

We’re still learning how to operate the drone effectively… with an emphasis on not spooking the neighbors. But we plan to take this thing on some hikes in the area to capture more stunning pictures here in the new year. I’ll share those with you as they come.

And speaking of the new year, I’ve spent a considerable amount of time reading, thinking, and assessing the prominent trends that will feed into our 2026 investment outlook.

Continue reading “2026 Investment Outlook: Real Assets, Rates, AI & Metals”

“What’s that crackling noise… do you hear it?”

It was a blustery evening in Arrington, Tennessee – a picturesque unincorporated community about 35 minutes south of Nashville. After a great Thanksgiving week at my brother’s house, we were getting the kids settled in to watch Home Alone before bedtime.

That’s when the lady of the house walked in asking about the crackling noise. She was in the next room giving their 8-month old a bath and couldn’t figure out what the strange noise was.

Nobody thought much of it until my brother opened the attic door to investigate… and was greeted by a whirlwind of smoke, loose insulation, and 9-foot flames engorging themselves upon the exposed wood in the unfinished room.

Unflinching, he jumped into action. “The house is on fire! Everybody out!”

Slightly confused, the kids dutifully followed their mothers down the stairs and out into the cold night. I watched their exit from the door to confirm their safety, then I went to work evacuating everything I could think of.

First I grabbed our laptops out of the home office and rushed them out to the car, parked safely on the street. Then I ran back in and grabbed my briefcase, stashing everything I could into it. Phone chargers… the kids’ tablets… whatever else happened to be lying on the counter – I grabbed everything in reach and made my way for the exit.

On the way out, I passed my brother who was wielding a hand-held fire extinguisher and calling for his cat. Upon depositing my second round of salvaged possessions into the car, I dashed back to the house, determined to help save the cat.

“Joe, it’s too late,” my brother called from the curb as I approached the door. Ignoring his warning, I pulled my shirt over my nose and started in.

“Joe! Look at the house man. You can’t go back in… you’re not replaceable!”

I made it two steps before an ocean of black smoke flowed down the stairs and filled the entire first level of the home nearly instantly… taking my breath away in the process.

I was forced to heed my brother’s warning and retreat back to the curb. That’s when I finally looked up and saw what he was referring to:

It looked like special effects from a movie… but it was real. A fireball had engulfed the upper level of the house and was devouring everything with ravenous hunger.

Continue reading “What I learned from the great Nashville fire of 2025”

Mortgage notes are a low-hassle vehicle for generating solid returns and extra monthly income power. This asset class remains something of a secret that Wall Street keeps hidden from regular investors, but there are no restrictions or barriers to entry. 

As last week’s real-world story of Gateway Savings & Loan demonstrated, mortgage notes play a critical behind-the-scenes role within the financial system. 

The fact is, investors help make 30-year fixed-rate mortgages possible. We wouldn’t be able to buy a home with a 30-year fixed rate unless investors were willing to buy our mortgage.

And given that interest rates have risen substantially in recent years, investing in mortgage notes offers strong returns today – typically between 7 and 18% a year annualized.

I know we’ve only hit the highlights in our series over the past week, but I wanted to put this asset class on your radar. If the prospect of earning steady, asset-backed income power with creative tax strategies piqued your interest, The Phoenician League is hosting a free strategy session tonight to go much deeper on the subject.

We’re going to walk through every facet of mortgage note investing—from the basics to advanced tactics. And we’ll walk through a live example of how to analyze an available mortgage note in real-time. We’ll talk extensively about due diligence and risk management as well.

Continue reading “Discover the Income Power of Mortgage Notes”

In the good old days of American politics, there always seemed to be a push for presidential candidates to release their tax returns. 

The media would put out the notion that it was somehow noble for a candidate to pay a lot in taxes. And that’s why the candidates who were savvy businessmen never went along with it. Then the media would speculate about why they refused to show the American people their tax return, seeking to paint them in a bad light.

Ahh, the good old days. 

That’s back when presidential debates revolved around meaningless political topics and good old-fashioned mudslinging… rather than assassination attempts and arguments over who’s a he, who’s a she, and who’s an it.

Nostalgia aside, the reason certain presidential candidates didn’t release their tax returns was that they weren’t paying any taxes. Or if they were, their tax rate was minuscule.

The mainstream belief is that the tax code is all about raising revenue for the government to fund civil services. But that’s just not the case.

The federal tax code consists of over 70,000 pages. Yet, less than five percent of those pages are about paying taxes. In other words, less than five percent of the US tax code pertains to collecting revenue for the government.

The other 95 percent of the code is all about how to avoid paying the taxes that the first five percent says we owe. That’s the whole point underlying such a complex code.

So the US tax code is actually about how not to pay taxes. It was written to show “those in the know” how to legally avoid paying taxes. But regular folks can follow it too. We just have to know what the code says.

Now, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) classifies income in different ways. When it comes to mortgage notes, we need to ensure that the income they generate for us is considered ‘active’ income per the IRS definition. 

The easiest way to accomplish this is to invest in mortgage notes through an LLC established specifically to buy mortgages. This unlocks the tax code and allows us to shift a lot of personal expenses to the business… and create some phantom expenses to boot.

Continue reading “Unlocking Tax-Free Passive Income”