Category: Insights

We’re going to talk about Fed independence today… and a secret plot that may be brewing. But first, I hope the summer months are treating you well!

Up here in the Virginia highlands, we’ve had more summer storms and heavy rains than I can remember since we’ve been here. There’s something aesthetic about a good storm, and the rain keeps everything green.

But it turns out that Mother Nature is a force to be reckoned with… and we learned that this week when a torrential downpour washed out part of our gravel road. Here it is:

This hasn’t happened in the twelve years we’ve lived here on the frontier. That river of muddy water rushed down from the mountain and worked its way across the road and down into the river. Amazing.

Almost as exciting as roads washing out, we were talking about interest rates last time we spoke. Specifically, went examined the three key interest rate benchmarks and how each impacts rates throughout the economy.

The key takeaway we came to was that the Federal Reserve (the Fed) no longer controls long-term interest rates. The only benchmark it controls is the Federal Funds Rate, which influences short term rates (up to 2 years)… and that’s it.

So the conclusion we came to was that, even if the Fed were to cut its target rate aggressively, there’s still no guarantee that long-term Treasuries or mortgage rates would go down. As evidence, the 10-year Treasury and the 30-year mortgage rate actually went up immediately after the Fed cut its target rate last year.

Regardless, the Trump Administration has not stopped pounding the table on their desire for the Fed to cut rates. In fact, President Trump tripled down on his attacks on Fed independence. He recently said that the Fed should cut its target rate to 1% – which is three times lower than where it is today.

This further fueled media speculation that Trump might try to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell. CNBC even asked Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent if someone could be both Fed Chair and the Treasury Secretary in a live interview.

Bessent responded, “Hasn’t been done since the 1930s…”

“That’s not a no,” the reporter quipped. Bessent paused and didn’t elaborate much on the matter.

You can intuit a lot from watching someone’s body language in conversation… and I think Bessent’s body language was telling in this interview.

Continue reading “Is Fed Independence at Risk?”

We’re talking long-term interest rates this week… in honor of America’s Independence Day, I suppose.

When we left off yesterday, we suggested that the Federal Reserve (the Fed) no longer has control over long-term interest rates – which are the rates that matter the most.

The reason being is that there are three key interest rate benchmarks that influence rates throughout the US economy. They are:

• The Federal Funds Rate (Fed Funds Rate)
• The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR)
• The 10-year Treasury Rate

We talked about the Fed Funds Rate yesterday.

As a reminder, when we talk about the Fed cutting or hiking rates, we’re talking about the Fed Funds Rate. But here’s the thing – it only influences short-term interest rates. To understand why, we have to understand the other benchmarks.

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is the primary benchmark for trillions of dollars in corporate loans, adjustable-rate mortgages, floating-rate loans, interest rate swaps, futures contracts, options, derivatives, and other structured financial products. It reflects pure borrowing costs without bank credit risk.

SOFR is a critical benchmark for large corporate and institutional borrowing and hedging activity, and that extends into longer-term financing. Often this activity occurs when a company is undertaking larger-scale projects.

So SOFR is arguably more important than the Fed Funds Rate when it comes to spurring larger projects that could generate economic growth.

Continue reading “Why Market Forces, Not the Fed, Now Set Long-Term Interest Rates”

Dear friends – I hope the summer months are treating you well.

It’s been quite a while since I’ve last written to you. We have been busy working on a range of updates and upgrades for The Phoenician League behind the scenes. We are also in the early stages of planning a multi-day event that I think will be both fun and insightful. More information on that to come…

It’s been unusually hot up here in the mountains of Virginia. It’s rare that the temperature moves above the low 80s during the summers here… but it’s been pushing into the 90s the last few weeks.

For some relief, the kids and I ventured to a little-known swimming hole on the banks of the great Cowpasture River this past weekend. Here it is:

Crystal clear waters, a clear blue sky, and a quiet gravel beach… what more could one ask for?

The Cowpasture River originates in Virginia’s rugged northern highlands and winds its way south for 84 miles through the western part of the state. Then it merges with the Jackson river at Iron Gate to form the James – which meanders east across the state until it empties into the Chesapeake Bay past the original colony of Jamestown.

The natives called the river the “Walatoola”, which means “winding waters”. But then the Brits settled the area in the 1720s and dubbed it the “Cowpasture River”. They must have been a creative lot. Regardless, it’s hard to beat a morning by the river out here on the Virginia frontier.

Getting back to the world of finance…

A lot’s being made in the financial world right now about President Trump berating Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell and pressuring him to cut interest rates. The financial media jumped onto this to drum up a story around it – should Powell cut rates or not… and is he stupid like Trump says?

Continue reading “Why the Fed Funds Rate Matters Less Than You Think in Today’s Economy”

We’re talking about family heritage this week – having been inspired by an annual Lebanese festival and the most recent Remnant Finance podcast.

Yesterday we examined why passing along a heritage to future generations is critically important – even more so than passing on an inheritance. The reason is simple…

Heritage refers to our history, traditions, values, and customs. It shapes our identity and helps inform who we are and what we stand for. Not in a dogmatic way, but in a way that resonates with our authentic self as an individual.

If we aren’t firm in our own family heritage, the institutions of this world will work hard to shape us into a uniform, obedient, and compliant mass – so that we see ourselves as subordinate to the institutions. It’s insidious… but that’s the nature of our society at the present time.

To that end, I’d like to share my family heritage with you today.

I’m named for my great-grandfather, Joseph Elias Ellis. He was born in Beirut in 1878. That’s the capital city of Lebanon today… but Lebanon as an entity did not exist at that time. It didn’t become an independent country until 1943.

The area now known as Lebanon was home to the vibrant Phoenician city-states during antiquity. Then the Ottoman Empire conquered the entire region in 1516 and divided it into administrative units.

Originally the area consisting of modern Lebanon was carved up into different units. But the Ottomans consolidated the region into a single administrative unit in 1861. They called it “Lebanon” because the great mountain range in the northern part of the region had been known as the Mount Lebanon range for millennia.

Now, the Ottoman Empire was officially a Muslim state that imposed Sharia law upon its administrative units. Under the law, non-Muslims were classified as dhimmis – a protected but legally inferior class.

Thus, non-Muslims had a certain degree of religious and civil autonomy within their local jurisdiction. But they had to pay special taxes and were subjected to certain restrictions.

Joseph Ellis was born into a Maronite Christian community in Beirut. That made him a dhimmi – an inferior citizen.

Continue reading “The Power of Family Heritage – From Ancient Phoenicia to Today”

Friends,

I have another note from the frontier to share with you today. In honor of the ancient Phoenicians from which we derive our name, I ventured out to an annual Lebanese festival at the St. Elias Maronite Church this weekend.

For those who may not know, Lebanon did not become an independent country until 1943. But the modern country of Lebanon houses the great Phoenician city-states of the ancient world.  The three most prominent city-states – Tyre, Sidon, and Byblos – still exist by name today.

So I consider my journey to the Lebanese festival to be an annual pilgrimage of sorts. Here’s a picture I snapped of the Bell Tower that rises above the Maronite compound’s entrance:

This is the vantage point from the outside lawns. That bell tower marks the entrance to the compound which opens up into a courtyard with a fountain in the middle. The courtyard connects two large buildings – one of the left and one on the right.

The building to the left houses the kitchen and cafeteria. It offered festival-goers a wide array of Lebanese-style dishes. The building on the right houses the church, the library, and a set of classrooms for religious education.

I find this place to be fascinating.

For starters, the architecture mimics the classic Syriac Basilica Form that was common throughout the Mediterranean region in the 19^th century. And the church’s stained glass windows depict historical figures – including St. Elias, whose legacy is more highly regarded in the Eastern Christian tradition.

Continue reading “Heritage vs. Inheritance: Lessons from the Ancient Phoenicians”

For decades, the world of investing has been a shark tank where the deck was stacked against individual investors. Financial security was elusive. That’s why Harry Browne’s old Permanent Portfolio concept was so prescient back in the 1970s and 80s.

I’m happy to say that the Information Age has blown that old dynamic apart. Today, I would argue that individual investors have a leg-up on Wall Street and the institutions… if they are strategic about their operations.

That idea is at the heart of the investment approach we advocate at The Phoenician League, and we spent some time laying out the nuances behind it at our webinar on Wednesday. If you missed it, you can find the replay of that event right here: https://phoenician-league.lpages.co/strategic-investor-webinar-replay/

As we discussed at the webinar, the key is to have a comprehensive plan and to think long-term. If we do, it doesn’t take long to create true financial security and create extra streams of income.

For those who would like to fast-track their journey to financial security, we’re opening the doors to The Phoenician League through next Tuesday at midnight. If you would like to fully implement the strategies we discussed at the webinar with direct support – this membership is your path.

The Phoenician League offers:

Continue reading “Financial Security and Income”

“Making money is not like what I thought it would be. This business kills the part of life that is essential, the part that has nothing to do with business…  

People want an authority to tell them how to value things, but they choose this authority not based on facts or results. They choose it because it seems authoritative and familiar.” 

This quote comes from Michael Burry’s letter to his investors at the end of the movie The Big Short. It’s a great movie. And the book is even better. 

We have been discussing a comprehensive approach to personal finance and investing over the past week and a half. I have tried to lay out a strategic investment plan that leads directly to financial security and ultimately financial independence. 

I sat down to pen this entry with the hopes of putting it all together and painting the big picture for you… and the above quote kept popping up in my head. I think it’s exactly the message that so many of us need to hear. 

When I took a job in the investment research field, my sole motivation was financial. I had largely squandered the money I earned working in corporate banking, my first career, and I was dead-set on making up for lost time. 

So I put my head down and worked 10 hours a day during the week and at least 8 hours over the weekend. I didn’t take any days off – not even holidays, with the exception of Thanksgiving and Christmas. 

I did this for years, and sure enough I became a fairly competent investment analyst and financial writer. I also started to build out a bulletproof portfolio and make some cash flow investments with a strategic investment plan – just as I’ve talked to you about over the past week. 

As time went on, I was amazed at how my portfolio and my income ballooned.  

It didn’t take long until I was at a point where I didn’t have to worry about money anymore. There’s such peace of mind that comes with knowing you have the resources to pay the bills and take care of your family no matter what may come your way. 

However, I learned a hard lesson through this process. I didn’t need to focus solely on the financial side of things to achieve financial security. It doesn’t come from extreme hard work. It comes from having an investment plan and executing it consistently. 

And you know what surprised me? 

Continue reading “Build Financial Security with a Strategic Investment Plan”

Anyone who pays attention to their finances is aware of the power taxes have to impede their growth.

For W2 wage earners, you see how taxes eat into your income with every paycheck you receive. The gap between your gross pay on the top line and your net pay on the bottom line can be quite substantial.

For business owners, taxes can nearly wipe out an entire year’s income if you’re not diligent with your planning. I have a friend who was absolutely shocked when this happened to him. He had a good year… until the tax bill came.

And for investors, taxes can eat into returns significantly. An old experiment on exponential growth demonstrates this…

Let’s say you start with a penny – $0.01 – and you’re such a good investor that you’re able to double it every day. That’s a 100% investment gain each day.

If you keep at this for 30 days, that one penny will grow to a mind-blowing $10,737,418. That’s the power of exponential growth.

But what happens if your performance is subjected to capital gains tax every time you hit a double?

The standard capital gains tax rate is 15% here in the US. That sounds innocent enough… but the math lays out how insidious it is.

Getting back to our penny example…

Continue reading “Tax Strategies to Boost Wealth”

We’ve been talking about real estate and mortgage notes this week. Both are powerful cash flow investments, but they need a strong foundation. It all comes down to making your money bulletproof…

That’s where the concept of an asset allocation guide comes in.

The idea is to spread your capital out over a range of robust assets. That way you are insulated from economic uncertainties while positioned to grow your money over time.

A robust asset allocation model will consist of:

• 10-20% Strategically Warehoused Cash
• 5-20% Gold
• 5-20% Bitcoin
• 5-20% Capital-efficient Stocks
• 20-50% Cash Flow Investments
• 0-5% Alternative Investments

This is how we create a modern Permanent Portfolio. It’s all about building a personalized asset allocation guide. That guide determines how much of our total savings we allocate to each bucket.

Here’s my current asset allocation guide:

Continue reading “A Modern Asset Allocation Guide”

As we’ve discussed this week, investment real estate can serve as a cornerstone for passive income. Real estate is a timeless hard asset that’s tried and true. 

Today we’re going to talk about a real estate hack that can juice your cash flow and reduce risk. Let’s start by setting the stage…

While real estate is tried and true, it also comes with periodic challenges. 

As an investor, we’re on the hook for repairs and maintenance items from time to time. And then turnover costs can get a little steep whenever a tenant moves out. Those costs eat into our cash flow.

Mortgage notes fix that…

When you invest in a mortgage note, you’re buying somebody else’s mortgage. Then, when they make their monthly payment, the principal and interest (P&I) portion of it comes to you.

Continue reading “Boost Passive Income with Mortgage Notes: A Real Estate Hack”