We’ve been chatting about the US elections this week – and how the results will impact America’s Great Reorganization.
A curious thing happened as the votes were being counted Tuesday night… Bitcoin shot up to $74,000. That means one bitcoin is now worth considerably more than the average car here in the US.
I can’t help but chuckle thinking about it…
I bought my first bitcoins in 2014. As I got more comfortable with it – and as the technical infrastructure improved – I began suggesting that others start buying too.
Please don’t get the wrong idea here… I’m not one of those guys that made hundreds of millions on Bitcoin. I’ve done well. But it’s not like I had the resources to load up in the early days.
In 2014 I had a $50,000 salary and an infant daughter at home. Bitcoin traded for around $250 at its low point that year. For much of the year it was closer to $800. So it’s not like I was buying thousands of bitcoins at a time – that opportunity had past.
The reason I chuckle today is because I told countless people to start buying Bitcoin back then. Then I kept at it for years.
I told family and friends. I told random people I’d meet around town. I wrote about it in my blog daily for a few years. Then I gave two presentations on Bitcoin to an investment research firm in 2017 – when Bitcoin was still trading below $1,000.
After that an entrepreneur group invited me twice to give a talk on Bitcoin to their members – first in Texas in early 2019 and then in Vermont in early 2020. Bitcoin was trading around $4,000 at the time.
Then I even got on a Zoom call with the decision makers at a 401(k) management firm in September of 2020. Bitcoin had just surpassed the $10,000 mark and one of the partners had taken an interest in it.
I know of two people who took me up on my suggestion to start buying Bitcoin regularly – both from the investment research world. But they were the exception. I don’t think anyone else took the leap of faith.
Most folks came up with reasons why they should avoid Bitcoin. Maybe it was a New York Times article they had read. Maybe it was what their financial advisor said about the matter. Maybe it was the fact that “not everybody believed in it”. Or maybe it was the idea that Bitcoin would be worthless if the electrical grid went down. Or – as one person at the 401(k) firm told me with a sneer – Bitcoin just “wasn’t suitable for responsible investors”.
Whatever it was, I learned that most people simply won’t do something if it’s not popular. If it goes against the accepted consensus.
That disappointed me a little bit at first… because I had never been more sure of anything in my life. That’s how confident I was in presenting the case for BTC.
Just for fun, I went back to see where Bitcoin was trading when I first mentioned it in my blog.
It looks like my earliest reference to bitcoin was on October 6, 2014. You could buy one bitcoin for $327 at the time.
Anyone who bought a single bitcoin on that day would be sitting on $73,673. Anyone who bought five bitcoins for a measly $1,635 would now have $368,365 worth of Bitcoin. Not too shabby.
The big takeaway for me is simple…
Trust yourself. Trust your intuition. And when you believe in something, act.
It’s funny, when you have a strong feeling about something – it’s usually not perfectly tangible or linear. You know something to be true… but you can’t explain exactly how it will come to pass. I suppose that’s just the nature of intuition.
Well, the same feeling I had about Bitcoin ten years ago is the feeling I have about our running thesis on America’s Great Reorganization today.
The financial media isn’t there yet. But I’m very confident that the days of cheap money and low rates are over.
Things are not going back to how they were… and that has massive implications for the investment markets. Let’s talk about that next week.
-Joe Withrow
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