jwithrow, Author at The Phoenician League

What the markets are telling us right now…

The Dow Jones… the US dollar… Bitcoin… Ripple…

They have each surged higher over the past month. Something’s going on here…

We wouldn’t expect these four assets to be correlated with one another. Never before have they each benefitted from the same trend.

Now, it would be one thing if these four assets just happened to perform well on the same day – showing small gains. But that’s not what we’re talking about. Here are their gains over the past 30 days:

Dow Jones Industrial Average: +6.6%
US Dollar Index (DXY): +2.8%
Bitcoin (BTC): +43.8%
Ripple (XRP): +361%

These are massive moves for each asset over a one-month time period… and that’s never happened before for each of them at the same time.

Historically, it’s not uncommon for the Dow and the US Dollar Index to rise in tandem. But typically we would expect Bitcoin and Ripple to fall when those two rise.

The American Dream: A Changing Reality

Friends – I hope you had a wonderful Thanksgiving. This is my favorite time of the year.

To celebrate the holiday, we made our annual trek to my 97-year-old grandmother’s house last Thursday. With a few exceptions, this has been our family tradition for over 50 years now – since before I was around.

My grandfather hasn’t been here for the last 21 Thanksgivings… but they’ve all happened at the home he built in 1954.

The man had the vision to buy about 20 acres of land in the countryside outside of Richmond, VA back then. He worked as a police officer in the city… I suspect that experience fueled his desire to live in the country.

Looking back – he always maintained a large garden. I especially loved his okra. Grandma would fry it up perfectly.

And I’ll never forget his big red tractor with oversized tires. That leviathan is what he cut his grass with.

I reflect on these things each year when we venture back for Thanksgiving. It occurs to me that my grandfather is a textbook picture of the American Dream.

What we got wrong about Thanksgiving

Friends – it seems the holiday season is upon us.

Tomorrow we’ll gather for a Thanksgiving celebration – a decidedly American tradition. I love the holiday… but I think we got one thing wrong.

I’m not sure how it came to be that we associate turkey with Thanksgiving. And I’m not wholly opposed to it, either. But I tend to think that fried chicken would be a better choice for the main dish. What could be more American than that?

Regardless, I look forward to our holiday traditions. There’s something magical about this time of year. And the decorations truly add to the festive spirit.

My brother and I held the annual meeting for our real estate investment company at the historic Homestead resort in Hot Springs, Virginia yesterday. This giant Christmas tree greets you as soon as you walk into the resort.

The economics of deer and people…

The first snow flurry of the season descended upon the mountains of Virginia yesterday.

It came seemingly from nowhere. Temperatures were just in the 50s earlier in the week. But they dropped below freezing and ushered in a robust 30-minute flurry – reminding me that it’s time to move the firewood.

I walked outside to snap a few shots of the season’s first snow… and a young family of deer happened to meander through the field. Here they are:

Sometimes I joke that you’re more likely to see deer than people up in my neck of the woods. But it’s true. They are always coming and going – making their way out of the woods and across the fields… and back into the woods again.

I’m not sure what motivates their migration patterns. What I do know is that they seem beyond confused any time I happen to step outside and into their view.

A time for gold and resiliency

A scheduling error caused yesterday’s email to go out at midnight Eastern rather than our normal time slot. Sorry about that.

The big news today is the escalation of the war in Eastern Europe… which is both troubling and completely senseless.

We live in a world of abundance with space-age technology. The average person in the developed world enjoys far more comforts and luxuries than the wealthiest kings and nobles alive 200 years ago.

And even those in the developing world are seeing their living standards gradually rise. I say this with a little first-hand experience.

Our non-profit foundation funded a project in Uganda last year. A considerable portion of the Ugandan population still lives in homes with no running water and no electricity. Yet, most households have a mobile phone with satellite connectivity. And some homes are starting to get solar panels – which are functional year-round in the area.

This technology is improving the quality of life for regular folks in the villages. It’s slow progress… but it’s progress nonetheless.

Meanwhile, “leaders” of western countries are shooting drones and missiles at each other like it’s a degenerate video game – threatening an escalation that could have a dramatic impact on regular people all over the world. I find no words strong enough to condemn these people for how evil they are.

What the kids think about economics

Our homeschool co-op celebrated the close of another successful semester this week.

It’s humbling to watch these kids learn and grow. They are so much smarter than I was at their age… and they communicate infinitely better.

Here’s a snapshot of my daughter giving a presentation on what she learned in her science class:

Coincidently, I offered to teach a course on economics for the co-op this semester. I was excited about that – I spent some time putting together my first few lessons plans.

The big picture of money and investing…

It’s starting to feel like the holiday season, isn’t it?

Most of the leaves have fallen… the pumpkins are out on the front porch… Sam Adams is releasing its holiday style collection – what’s not to love?

This is by far my favorite time of year. And I can’t help but feel a connection to generations past as we celebrate Thanksgiving, Christmas, and then the dawn of a new year.

There’s something magical about these long-seated cultural traditions that tie us to our past… and imbue us with a responsibility for the future. Perhaps I’ll share more thoughts on that with you next week.

For this week, I’d like to share with you some highlights from a webinar I did yesterday for my friend Tom Woods’ audience. It focused on the big picture of money and investing, and I think I may have communicated it better than I ever have before.

I’m learning how to produce a series of short 2-minute highlight videos pulled from the larger recording. If you would care to check out the first one, you can find it below.

And if you would like to view the entire webinar replay, you can find it right here.

Investing vs Speculating

Bitcoin kept running after I penned yesterday’s insight. It ultimately hit a high of $89,500 before pulling back.

But as we discussed yesterday, to fixate on Bitcoin’s dollar price is to miss the big picture.

What matters is that Bitcoin is a world class reserve asset. And if we want to build lasting wealth, all we need to do is accumulate world class assets over time.

What we’re talking about is the exact opposite of what happened a few years ago.

In January 2021, GameStop (GME) – a company teetering on the edge of bankruptcy – suddenly saw its shares skyrocket overnight. It all stemmed from a plot that originated in the Reddit forum /WallStreetBets.

Somebody noticed that GameStop was heavily shorted… hedge funds were betting hard that its shares would go down. So this person shared that information with traders in the Reddit forum and they came to an informal accord.

The Secret to Building Wealth

Fall is on the downswing up here in the mountains.

Two weeks ago the trees were a robust symphony of reds, oranges, and yellows – shades of each color weaving an intricate web upon the mountains. Today, most of those trees are bare… and winter’s gray stare draws near.

To every time there is a season, as the Book of Ecclesiastes notes. And the same is true in the world of money and finance.

We were talking about Bitcoin when we left off last week. It had just shot past $74,000… and I took a few minutes to reminisce about the ride.

Well, Bitcoin didn’t bother to take a breather. As I write, Bitcoin is now trading just shy of $82,000… and suddenly the six-figures benchmark is in play.

I’ve seen this same pattern play out three times before. First in 2014. Then in 2017… and in 2020. Here we go again…

How to make $73,673 in one move

We’ve been chatting about the US elections this week – and how the results will impact America’s Great Reorganization.

A curious thing happened as the votes were being counted Tuesday night… Bitcoin shot up to $74,000. That means one bitcoin is now worth considerably more than the average car here in the US.

I can’t help but chuckle thinking about it…

I bought my first bitcoins in 2014. As I got more comfortable with it – and as the technical infrastructure improved – I began suggesting that others start buying too.

Please don’t get the wrong idea here… I’m not one of those guys that made hundreds of millions on Bitcoin. I’ve done well. But it’s not like I had the resources to load up in the early days.

In 2014 I had a $50,000 salary and an infant daughter at home. Bitcoin traded for around $250 at its low point that year. For much of the year it was closer to $800. So it’s not like I was buying thousands of bitcoins at a time – that opportunity had past.

The reason I chuckle today is because I told countless people to start buying Bitcoin back then. Then I kept at it for years.