Author: jwithrow

We’ve been talking recently about the recapitalization of the United States.

There’s an old saying that if you want to know what’s going on, you have to follow the money. And the money is suggesting that institutional capital—large entities like pension funds, endowments, and insurance companies—are betting on significant policy changes.

My read is that we’re going to see a sincere effort to recapitalize the American economy. This will require a significant restructuring of America’s financial and economic framework on three levels:

• Government Debt and Fiscal Health
• Economic Revitalization
• US Dollar Stability

Last week we touched on how Bitcoin fits into the picture. We noted that there’s strong support within the Trump administration for creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve for the country. That plan entails purchasing 200,000 bitcoins a year for five years.

As we discussed, this signals that Bitcoin will become a prime source of collateral within the dollar-based financial system. But there’s a lot more to that story than meets the eye…

Continue reading “The America First plan is falling into place…”

The holiday season is upon us… it’s such a magical time of year.

We visited my aunt at the old family home this past week. It always brings back fond memories.

My great grandfather Joseph Ellis built the house in 1934. It’s a beautiful two-story brick house with round white columns supporting the front porch. The architecture is very Jeffersonian – in a simple kinda way.

Ellis was born in Beirut, Lebanon in 1878. Seeking the American Dream, he immigrated to the US in 1895 – along with his wife Zelpha and a few other Lebanese families.

They entered the country through the Ellis Island immigration station and went through the examination and registration process. That’s where he got the surname “Ellis”. I’m not sure if it was his choice or the immigration officers’ decision, but somebody decided it would be better for him to have the last name Ellis rather than his Arabic name.

Upon completing the registration process, Ellis and his wife were deemed “Naturalized” and permitted to enter New York City. From there, this cohort of Lebanese families traveled south. They eventually settled in a small paper mill town up in the Virginia highlands. The mountains reminded them of home.

Once settled, Ellis opened a restaurant in Covington. I’m told they were the first restaurant in town to have pizza on the menu. The Italian immigrants wouldn’t show up for another several decades.

Ellis worked seven days a week in the restaurant for much of his life. But it afforded him the ability to have four children and eventually build the family home in 1934. It’s perched atop a large hill overlooking the town.

Here’s a picture I took this past week:

Continue reading “The American Dream, Bitcoin, and Ripple – where are we today?”

I’m a bit tardy in following up on our conversation this week. But it’s a good one…

Last week we noticed an odd correlation – the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), the US Dollar Index (DXY), Bitcoin (BTC), and Ripple (XRP) each surged higher immediately after last month’s presidential election here in the US.

It would be one thing if these were overnight moves higher that immediately reversed. But that’s not what we saw. Each of these assets ripped higher in the 30 days following the election:

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: +6.6%
• US Dollar Index (DXY): +2.8%
• Bitcoin (BTC): +43.8%
• Ripple (XRP): +361%

With the exception of Bitcoin, each has pulled back slightly this week – which is to be expected after such a strong run. But it’s not so much their price action that’s interesting… it’s what that price action is telling us.

As we noted last week, most activity in the financial markets is driven by institutional capital flow – much of it automated. The strong moves we’re talking about here weren’t driven by individuals each investing a little bit of money into these assets. It took tens of billions – likely hundreds of billions of dollars – to drive prices higher like this.

I suggested last week that this was a signal. Institutional capital—large entities like pension funds, endowments, and insurance companies—are betting on a recapitalization of the United States.

Here’s how that applies to each of the assets that surged higher after the election…

Continue reading “What the Dow and the dollar are saying…”

We’ve been talking about the pending recapitalization of the United States this week…

For those just joining our conversation, enormous amounts of investment capital has flowed into American assets, Bitcoin, and other cryptocurrencies over the past month. If we look at the charts, it’s clear that the presidential election was the catalyst driving these moves.

There’s an old saying that if you want to know what’s going on, you have to follow the money. And the money is suggesting that institutional capital—large entities like pension funds, endowments, and insurance companies—are betting on significant policy changes.

My read is that we’re going to see a sincere effort to recapitalize the American economy. This will require a significant restructuring of America’s financial and economic framework on three levels:

1. Government Debt and Fiscal Health
2. Economic Revitalization
3. US Dollar Stability

We talked about the US government impending debt wall and the need for dramatic spending cuts on Wednesday.  And we hit on the prospect of economic revitalization yesterday.

Today let’s tackle dollar stability. And it starts with this chart…

Continue reading “The last piece of the recapitalization puzzle…”

As we discussed yesterday, we’ve seen some interesting moves in the markets over the past month – including a very curious correlation between the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the US Dollar Index, Bitcoin, and Ripple.

These moves are sending a signal. They suggest that we’re going to see a major recapitalization of the United States.

Simply put, bad policies over the past 50 years have put the federal government on the precipice of default. The current trajectory cannot continue for much longer.

If we account for its massive unfunded liabilities in future Social Security and Medicare payments, the US government is already insolvent. If it were a private company, it would have already had to file for bankruptcy.

It’s obvious that the globalist faction welcomed the chaos that would come from a US government default. That’s how they envision instituting a centralized global government – creating order out of chaos.

Continue reading “Economic Overhaul: The Urgent Need for US Recapitalization”

The Dow Jones… the US dollar… Bitcoin… Ripple…

They have each surged higher over the past month. Something’s going on here…

We wouldn’t expect these four assets to be correlated with one another. Never before have they each benefitted from the same trend.

Now, it would be one thing if these four assets just happened to perform well on the same day – showing small gains. But that’s not what we’re talking about. Here are their gains over the past 30 days:

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: +6.6%
• US Dollar Index (DXY): +2.8%
• Bitcoin (BTC): +43.8%
• Ripple (XRP): +361%

These are massive moves for each asset over a one-month time period… and that’s never happened before for each of them at the same time.

Historically, it’s not uncommon for the Dow and the US Dollar Index to rise in tandem. But typically we would expect Bitcoin and Ripple to fall when those two rise.

Continue reading “What the markets are telling us right now…”

Friends – I hope you had a wonderful Thanksgiving. This is my favorite time of the year.

To celebrate the holiday, we made our annual trek to my 97-year-old grandmother’s house last Thursday. With a few exceptions, this has been our family tradition for over 50 years now – since before I was around.

My grandfather hasn’t been here for the last 21 Thanksgivings… but they’ve all happened at the home he built in 1954.

The man had the vision to buy about 20 acres of land in the countryside outside of Richmond, VA back then. He worked as a police officer in the city… I suspect that experience fueled his desire to live in the country.

Looking back – he always maintained a large garden. I especially loved his okra. Grandma would fry it up perfectly.

And I’ll never forget his big red tractor with oversized tires. That leviathan is what he cut his grass with.

I reflect on these things each year when we venture back for Thanksgiving. It occurs to me that my grandfather is a textbook picture of the American Dream.

Continue reading “The American Dream: A Changing Reality”

Friends – it seems the holiday season is upon us.

Tomorrow we’ll gather for a Thanksgiving celebration – a decidedly American tradition. I love the holiday… but I think we got one thing wrong.

I’m not sure how it came to be that we associate turkey with Thanksgiving. And I’m not wholly opposed to it, either. But I tend to think that fried chicken would be a better choice for the main dish. What could be more American than that?

Regardless, I look forward to our holiday traditions. There’s something magical about this time of year. And the decorations truly add to the festive spirit.

My brother and I held the annual meeting for our real estate investment company at the historic Homestead resort in Hot Springs, Virginia yesterday. This giant Christmas tree greets you as soon as you walk into the resort.

Continue reading “What we got wrong about Thanksgiving”

The first snow flurry of the season descended upon the mountains of Virginia yesterday.

It came seemingly from nowhere. Temperatures were just in the 50s earlier in the week. But they dropped below freezing and ushered in a robust 30-minute flurry – reminding me that it’s time to move the firewood.

I walked outside to snap a few shots of the season’s first snow… and a young family of deer happened to meander through the field. Here they are:

Sometimes I joke that you’re more likely to see deer than people up in my neck of the woods. But it’s true. They are always coming and going – making their way out of the woods and across the fields… and back into the woods again.

I’m not sure what motivates their migration patterns. What I do know is that they seem beyond confused any time I happen to step outside and into their view.

Continue reading “The economics of deer and people…”

A scheduling error caused yesterday’s email to go out at midnight Eastern rather than our normal time slot. Sorry about that.

The big news today is the escalation of the war in Eastern Europe… which is both troubling and completely senseless.

We live in a world of abundance with space-age technology. The average person in the developed world enjoys far more comforts and luxuries than the wealthiest kings and nobles alive 200 years ago.

And even those in the developing world are seeing their living standards gradually rise. I say this with a little first-hand experience.

Our non-profit foundation funded a project in Uganda last year. A considerable portion of the Ugandan population still lives in homes with no running water and no electricity. Yet, most households have a mobile phone with satellite connectivity. And some homes are starting to get solar panels – which are functional year-round in the area.

This technology is improving the quality of life for regular folks in the villages. It’s slow progress… but it’s progress nonetheless.

Meanwhile, “leaders” of western countries are shooting drones and missiles at each other like it’s a degenerate video game – threatening an escalation that could have a dramatic impact on regular people all over the world. I find no words strong enough to condemn these people for how evil they are.

Continue reading “A time for gold and resiliency”