jwithrow, Author at The Phoenician League

Exiting the Fantasy World

It’s time to get back to reality.

If we step back and look at our world objectively, the age of central banking and fiat money perpetuated a fantasy world. Interests rates always went down, stocks almost always went up, and the government could print money for any and all manner of bone-headed and sometimes evil programs.

With the tie to gold severed in 1971, our dollar became a floating abstraction – something that could be created ex nihilo, nihil fit. That’s Latin for nothing comes from nothing.

If we look at the chart, interest rates fell consistently from 1982 until 2008. Then they hit the floor, seemingly lifeless.

In 2008, Federal Reserve (the Fed) Chair Ben Bernanke announced that the age of global central bank coordination had begun. Their plan was to fix interest rates at zero and leave them there for the foreseeable future.

There are two things to note here…

First, it took globally coordinated policy to push rates to zero and keep them there. No single central bank could have pulled that off on their own… because market forces always work towards equilibrium.

Perhaps more importantly, interest rates are by definition the price of money. They are the cost of borrowing money.

When interest rates are zero – what does that say about the money?

Getting Back to Reality

After nearly a month of frigid weather, the snow has finally thawed here in the mountains of Virginia. The temperature surpassed 40 degrees over the weekend… and it felt like Spring.

I already miss the winter wonderland. There’s something beautiful about seeing a white landscape in all directions.

I could go for another month of this view. Alas, it’s time to get back to reality. And that’s exactly what we have to do in the world of finance and economics as well…

If we step back and look at it objectively, we can see a clear shift in American society several decades ago.

Fighting City Hall

Hey friends,

Just a quick update on my homeschooling series from last week – for those who are following along. And thanks to everyone who responded with support and ideas. I can’t tell you enough how much I appreciate it.

As a quick refresher, a state senator in Virginia put forth a bill (S.B. 1031) that would eliminate the religious exemption for homeschooling in the state. It’s nothing more than an overt attack on homeschool freedom and religious liberty.

When we left off last week, I attended the Education and Health subcommittee hearing at which they planned to review and vote for S.B. 1031. I’d never done anything like that before… I usually try to avoid politics as much as possible.

But in this case I felt compelled to show up and voice my opposition to their attack on liberty. I wanted them to know that they wouldn’t be able to sneak this one in without some backlash. And it seems I wasn’t the only one…

Homeschoolers packed the room for that hearing. It was standing room only two rows deep. So guess what they did?

The Nature of the Beast

We’re talking about the Virginia Senate’s attack on homeschool freedom and religious liberty this week.

As a quick refresher, a senator from Fairfax County put forth a bill that would eliminate Virginia’s religious exemption for homeschooling and managed to push it through to a sub-committee hearing in a matter of days.

The bill is S.B. 1031. It’s a blatant attack on the 0.6% of Virginia’s school-aged children who homeschool under the religious exemption. And that’s it. For the remaining 99.4% of the population… nothing at all changes.

When we left off yesterday, a group of us were waiting outside of Senate Room C to attend the sub-committee hearing and speak out against the bill. They didn’t like that we arrived early… so they made us wait in the hall.

The clerks arrived to let us into the conference room right at the appointed time. They then took their place in front of the hallowed high-back senator chairs in the front of the room – looking very nervous.

Uncovering the Agenda

“Oh, so you’re one of those whackos…”

I was trying to get a read on him as the elderly gentleman approached me. I didn’t sense hostility… but I didn’t sense a kindred spirit, either.

“Yep,” I replied. “Crazy as can be.”

The scene was Senate Room C in the Virginia State Capitol building. I ventured into the Belly of the Beast last week to voice opposition to a senate bill that would eliminate the homeschooling religious exemption in the state.

When we left off yesterday, a custodian had let me into the locked room ahead of the bill’s sub-committee hearing. In turn, I opened the doors for the old man.

As he approached me, he quoted the qualifying requirements encoded in the statute that recognizes the religious exemption for homeschooling in Virginia. Then he asked me directly: “Does this describe you?”

I answered that it did. To claim the exemption, you must submit a written letter to the local school board explaining why you qualify for it. I understood the law well.

“That’s what motivated me to take the day off to be here today,” I explained.

“If one assumes good faith, one would expect every bill proposed to seek to address a clear, objective, and measurable problem. That’s not the case here. This bill would negatively impact a tiny minority group of people… and do absolutely nothing for anybody else. It’s nothing more than an attack on homeschool freedom and religious liberty.”

“You’re right,” he answered – his serious tone unchanged. “But there have been some cases where parents have claimed the religious exemption and then neglected the children. There was even a murder in one family claiming the exemption a number of years back.”

“That’s not specific to the religious exemption,” I stated. “Those sound like instances of individual bad actors. There will always be bad apples… with anything.”

The old man nodded his head.

Navigating the Beast

As we discussed yesterday, I attended a senate sub-committee hearing at the Virginia State Capitol building last week.

A state senator from Fairfax County pushed through a bill (S.B. 1031) seeking to effectively eliminate Virginia’s religious exemption for homeschooling… and I felt compelled to show up in person to oppose it – along with many other homeschool freedom advocates.

The reality is that this bill is nothing more than an overt attack on a minority group of people – those who are homeschooling under the religious exemption in Virginia. To my way of thinking, that makes it an attack on the fundamental principle of religious liberty as well.

There are approximately 1.3 million school-aged children in Virginia. Of those, less than 8,000 homeschool under the religious exemption. That’s 0.6% of the population – a tiny fraction.

S.B. 1031 would effectively remove the homeschooling exemption for that small group of families… and that’s it. It would have absolutely no impact on the other 99.4% of the school-aged population.

The bill conveys no benefits. It doesn’t even claim to solve any problems. It’s simply an attack on homeschooling and religious liberty.

And that’s why I ventured into the Belly of the Beast last week…

Here’s the stairway leading up to Virginia’s Capitol Building in Richmond.

However, the front door up there is not the entrance. I found that out the hard way. The visitor entrance is directly below where I took this picture from.

There’s a massive 27,000 square-foot underground level complex underneath this hill. It adjoins the capitol building we see above.

To enter the underground complex, you must immediately go through security. From there it was like navigating a labyrinth to find Senate Room C of the General Assembly wing – where we gathered for the hearing last week.

Venturing into the Belly of the Beast

“Umm… you guys aren’t supposed to be in here. These doors stay locked until the clerks arrive for the hearing. They are the ones who will let you in. Please step outside until they get here…”

I looked around the room to gauge the reaction.

Some of us had been there for close to an hour. Most folks had taken off their coats and settled in. Many were engaged in discussions. Others were reading through their notes in preparation.

I heard a few people grumble under their breath. “Are you kidding me?” they seemed to ask themselves.

Still, everyone gathered their coats and proceeded to step out into the hall per the bureaucrat’s request. He remained quiet and steel-faced as we exited the room. He didn’t say thank you. He didn’t so much as smile to acknowledge anyone’s presence.

The scene was the Virginia State Capitol building in Richmond, VA. That’s right – I found myself venturing into the Belly of the Beast. Senate Room C in the General Assembly Wing, to be exact.

For many of us, it was our first time in the building. To say the crowd was highly motivated would be an understatement.

Days earlier we received word that a state senator from Fairfax County had pushed through a bill (S.B. 1031) seeking to effectively eliminate Virginia’s religious exemption for homeschooling.

It was a surprise attack that seemingly came out of left field. Even the Homeschool Legal Defense Association (HSLDA) was surprised.

The Turn-Key Investment System and Stewardship

More snow fell upon the Virginia highlands over the weekend. The landscape has been painted white for the past week now.

Here’s a picture I snapped early Saturday morning:

If you look close, you can see an adult deer emerging from the woods in the bottom right corner of this picture. Meanwhile, the winter sun makes it ascent above the majestic mountains in the background.

We’ve been living up here in the highlands for nearly twelve years now… and I’m thankful every day that we decided to make the move.

It seems like common sense to me in hindsight. But it was a dramatic change at the time. I walked away from a cushy corporate banking career in the city – with all the accompanying amenities and conveniences… and we completely uprooted our lives.

Our mountain home sits on five acres at the very end of a gravel road. It’s tucked deep within the Alleghany mountains. We’re twenty minutes away from the nearest towns and grocery stores.

The county’s population is about 15,000. The resort town to north of us sports a population of 408 people. And the larger paper mill town to the south is home to about 5,800 people.

I see deer like the one above every day now. They seem to have a routine of their own – meandering from the woods to the fields… and back to the woods again.

Sometimes I joke that you’re more likely to see deer than people around these parts. But for me, it’s largely true.

It’s the simple life. But it’s been enormously fulfilling for me.

This experience has convinced me that we should strive for fulfillment in every aspect of our lives. What exactly that means will be different for each of us. For me, it means simple and effective.

When it comes to money and finance, the Turn-Key Investment System fits that bill. It’s a simple strategy capable of generating thousands of dollars in extra monthly income for us – all while growing our asset base each year.

I hosted a webinar last week to lay out exactly how this investment system works. We called that event: Secrets of the Turn-Key Investment System – Growing Our Assets and Our Income in an America First World.

If you missed it, you can find the replay right here: https://phoenician-league.lpages.co/secrets-webinar-replay/

Investing in an America First World

The first snowfall of the new year fell upon the Virginia highlands last night. We awoke to this scene:

It’s a wet, thin snow… which is not nearly as pretty as the fluffy powder that blankets the trees. The wet snow is also decidedly more difficult to brush off of the solar panels atop my office roof.

Still, I never tire of seeing a winter wonderland in the mountains. It’s been nearly twelve years since we’ve been at this property – and we get excited for the prospects of snow every time.

With that said, let’s shift gears today…

We’ve been talking about the economic and societal implications of America’s Great Reorganization for months now. Today, let’s talk about investing in an America First world.

The Undeclared Recession of 2023

We’re continuing our discussion on America’s Great Reorganization this week.

When we left off yesterday, we were talking about what would happen if the DOGE team of Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy managed to cut $2 trillion in government spending. Would there be a recession?

My suggestion is that we’ve already been in a recession for over a year now… except it’s impacted certain elements of the American population far more than others. Low-income households, renters, middle-wage workers, young families with children, and retirees on limited incomes have each struggled mightily over the past year.

Housing, rent, and food costs have risen dramatically… as have child care costs. Meanwhile, official statistics show that the record level of household savings we saw during the Covid hysteria has evaporated. Worse, auto and credit card delinquencies have ballooned.

My friends at Bonner Private Research use a proprietary model to measure the health of the real economy. It’s called the Doom Index (version 2) – and it uses real-world data, not government statistics which are constantly dressed up.

The latest Doom Index reading illustrates the undeclared recession of 2023 very clearly: